Multidimensional analysis of interrelationships between money laundering risks, state vulnerability, and institutional transformation: Synergistic security effects

Abstract

The article examines the interrelations among the key determinants of anti-money laundering (AML) systems, including money laundering risks, state vulnerability and institutional transformation, in the context of their legal regulation, aiming to identify systemic patterns in security challenges. An integrated methodological approach is applied, combining correlation analysis, correspondence analysis and quadratic modeling to explore the interdependencies between the quantitative measures of these determinants–the Basel AML Index (AMLI), the Fragile States Index (FSI), and the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI). Statistical analysis revealed strong correlations: a positive relationship between AMLI and FSI (r = 0.70), and inverse relationships between AMLI and BTI (r = –0.81) and FSI and BTI (r = –0.77), all statistically significant (p = 0.00). A three-dimensional quadratic model demonstrates nonlinear threshold effects, where small changes in institutional capacity produce disproportionate shifts in risk and combined vulnerabilities amplify threats exponentially. Three critical risk zones were identified: ‘double weakness’, ‘institutional collapse’ and ‘pseudo-stability’. A paradoxical effect of ‘compensatory regulation’ was observed, where weaker states intensify formal AML measures to offset institutional deficiencies. The economic determinism of security risks was confirmed, as higher-income countries tend to perform better in AML.