A hybrid multi-agent and system dynamics approach for risk-informed selection of third-party logistics providers in supply chains

Abstract

In recent years, global supply chains have faced significant challenges from uncertainties and disruptions, highlighting the urgent need for resilient and flexible decision-making mechanisms. In order to address these challenges, this study integrates Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) and System Dynamics (SD) with the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, providing a novel hybrid approach to third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ selection under multiple risk factors. This model captures the impact of risks on weighted criteria and decision-making behaviours within dynamic, multi-agent environments. A case study in the ceramics industry validates the model, identifying critical risk factors influencing supply chain decisions and proposing optimal strategies for stakeholders. Key contributions include a comprehensive methodology for risk-informed decision-making, a validated system architecture for hybrid models, and practical recommendations for resilient supply chain management. Despite some limitations, the findings demonstrate the potential of the model to enhance decision-making in uncertain environments, offering a valuable tool for practitioners.