Ethnic dealignment and the limits of representation: South Asian Muslim voting behaviour under Keir Starmer

Abstract

The 2024 UK General Election produced the most ethnically diverse Parliament in history, with approximately 14 per cent of MPs from minority backgrounds, closely reflecting the electorate. Yet support for the Labour Party among some ethnic minority communities, particularly South Asian Muslims, has begun to wane. Drawing on a longitudinal ethnographic study of interviews in Bradford across the 2015 and 2024 General Elections, this article examines why these shifts appear to be accelerating under Keir Starmer’s leadership and how perceptions of representation shape political behaviour. The findings show that descriptive and symbolic representation, namely, visible diversity without substantive advocacy, alone do not secure voter loyalty: voters remain aligned with political parties only when they perceive the party acts in their material and political interests. These patterns indicate an emerging ethnic dealignment, analogous to the class dealignment that transformed British politics in the late twentieth century. While Labour retains strong support among Black Britons and other minorities, disaffection among South Asian Muslims, shaped largely by the party’s stance on Gaza, exposes new vulnerabilities. Placing these developments within a broader framework of political dealignment, the article demonstrates how ethnic diversity is reshaping the social foundations of centre-left politics in Britain, with lessons for parties across Europe.