Leveraging Machine Learning for Sophisticated Rental Value Predictions: A Case Study from Munich, Germany

Abstract

There has been very limited research conducted to predict rental prices in the German real estate market using an AI-based approach. From a general perspective, conventional approaches struggle to handle large amounts of data and fail to consider the numerous elements that affect rental prices. The absence of sophisticated, data-driven analytical tools further complicates this situation, impeding stakeholders, such as tenants, landlords, real estate agents, and the government, from obtaining the accurate insights necessary for making well-informed decisions in this area. This paper applies novel machine learning (ML) approaches, including ensemble techniques, neural networks, linear regression (LR), and tree-based algorithms, specifically designed for forecasting rental prices in Munich. To ensure accuracy and reliability, the performance of these models is evaluated using the R2 score and root mean squared error (RMSE). The study provides two feature sets for model comparison, selected by particle swarm optimisation (PSO) and CatBoost. These two feature selection methods identify significant variables based on different mechanisms, such as seeking the optimal solution with an objective function and converting categorical features into target statistics (TSs) to address high-dimensional issues. These methods are ideal for this German dataset, which contains 49 features. Testing the performance of 10 ML algorithms on two sets helps validate the robustness and efficacy of the AI-based approach utilising the PyTorch framework. The findings illustrate that ML models combined with PyTorch-based neural networks (PNNs) demonstrate high accuracy compared to standalone ML models, regardless of feature changes. The improved performance indicates that utilising the PyTorch framework for predictive tasks is advantageous, as evidenced by a statistical significance test in terms of both R2 and RMSE (p-values < 0.001). The integration results display outstanding accuracy, averaging 90% across both feature sets. Particularly, the XGB model, which exhibited the lowest performance among all models in both sets, significantly improved from 0.8903 to 0.9097 in set 1 and from 0.8717 to 0.9022 in set 2 after being combined with the PNN. These results showcase the efficacy of using the PyTorch framework, enhancing the precision and reliability of the ML models in predicting the dynamic real estate market. Given that this study applies two feature sets and demonstrates consistent performance across sets with varying characteristics, the methodology may be applied to other locations. By offering accurate projections, it aids investors, renters, property managers, and regulators in facilitating better decision-making in the real estate sector.