How did Brexit affect UK trade?


This paper assesses the effect of Brexit implemented through the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK trade. Using COMTRADE data for the period of 2019 up to 2022Q1, and the method of synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID), we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the change in its trade relationships with the EU. We show that the negative, large, and statistically significant impact of the TCA on UK exports has persisted over the examined period. This highlights the continuing export challenges that UK firms have faced since the TCA was put in force and underscores the need to systemically think about the UK’s post-Brexit trade policy. Our further analysis suggests that the UK has experienced a significant contraction in its trading capacity in terms of the varieties of goods being exported to the EU due to the TCA, which signify some serious long-term concerns about the UK’s future exporting and productivity.

Publication DOI:
Divisions: College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School
College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Economics, Finance & Entrepreneurship
College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Centre for Personal Financial Wellbeing
Funding Information: The project is carried out with support of the UKRI/ESRC funding through Enterprise Research Centre under ES/W005301/1.
Additional Information: Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http:s//, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properlycited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Brexit,UK,trade,Social Sciences(all),History
Publication ISSN: 2158-2041
Last Modified: 17 May 2024 07:18
Date Deposited: 03 Apr 2023 10:19
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Related URLs: https://www.tan ... 41.2023.2192043 (Publisher URL)
http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2023
Published Online Date: 2023-03-23
Accepted Date: 2023-03-10
Authors: Du, Jun (ORCID Profile 0000-0002-0449-4437)
Satoglu, Emine Beyza
Shepotylo, Oleksandr (ORCID Profile 0000-0003-4990-6025)



Version: Published Version

License: Creative Commons Attribution

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