Middle-Income Trap and the Evolving Role of Institutions along the Development Path

Abstract

Since the mid-twentieth century, we observe large differences in the development paths of countries, even when characterised by similar starting positions. Taiwan and South Korea hold world records in the speed of development, some of Latin America score in the middle, and few African countries are poorer per capita than they were seventy years ago. The main puzzle relates to countries stuck in the middle range of development. At this stage, innovativeness, openness, and adaptability are characteristics that become critical for further development. Yet, these successful development strategies may not be followed, when middle-income traps arise in a form of lock-ins of oligarchic political and economic power structures. This implies that political institutions matter early on, and small institutional differences may be amplified over time due to path dependence. Supporting empirical tests based on PENN World Table data are offered.