Safety Risk Estimation of Construction Project Based on Energy Transfer Model and System Dynamics: A Case Study of Collapse Accident in China

Abstract

Analyzing and understanding the occurrence and evolution mechanisms of construction accidents are important for construction safety management. This study proposed a hybrid approach of integrating the energy transfer model (ETM) and system dynamics (SD) theory to delineate the entire evolution stage of the construction accident. Specifically, the Fengcheng Power Plant construction platform collapse accident (FPCA) was taken as a practical case study. First, the ETM is applied to demonstrate the evolving nature of the accident. Then, the network of the accident-causing factors is constructed using the SD theory to analyze the dynamic change characteristics. The results indicate that the accident was caused by risk factors with complex interactions at the management level. An energy constraint failure occurred when the transfer of dangerous energy transpired at the physical entity level, inducing the event. The proposed approach can provide a useful reference for safety risk estimation and management in future major construction projects.