Aging and Rejuvenation Models of Load Changing Attacks in Micro-Grids


Recent cyber-attacks in critical infrastructures have highlighted the importance of investigating how to improve Smart-Grids (SG) resiliency. In the future, it is envisioned that grid connected micro-grids would have the ability of operating in 'islanded mode’ in the event of a grid-level failure. In this work, we propose a method for unfolding aging and rejuvenation models into their sequential counterparts to enable the computation of transient state probabilities in the proposed models. We have applied our methodology to one specific security attack scenario and four large campus micro-grids case studies. We have shown how to convert the software aging and rejuvenation, with cycles, to its unfolded counterpart. We then used the unfolded counterpart to support the survivability computation. We were able to analytically evaluate the transient failure probability and the associated Instantaneous Expected Energy Not Supplied metric, for each of the four case studies, from one specific attack. We envision several practical applications of the proposed methodology. First, because the micro-grid model is solved analytically, the approach can be used to support micro-grid engineering optimizations accounting for security intrusions. Second, micro-grid engineers could use the approach to detect security attacks by monitoring for unexpected deviations of the Energy Not Supplied metric.

Publication DOI:
Additional Information: Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Event Title: 2021 IEEE International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering Workshops (ISSREW)
Event Type: Other
Event Location: Wuhan, China
Event Dates: 2021-10-25 - 2021-10-28
Uncontrolled Keywords: Measurement,Computational modeling,Aging,Software,Smart grids,Security,Transient analysis
ISBN: 9781665426046
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2024 08:42
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2022 11:24
Full Text Link:
Related URLs: https://ieeexpl ... cument/9700323/ (Publisher URL)
PURE Output Type: Conference contribution
Published Date: 2021-10-28
Authors: Czekster, Ricardo M. (ORCID Profile 0000-0002-6636-4398)
Avritzer, Alberto
Menasché, Daniel Sadoc



Version: Accepted Version

| Preview

Export / Share Citation


Additional statistics for this record