Economic Uncertainty and Tourism Consumption


This study examines the influence of economic uncertainty on tourism. The key hypothesis to test is that while economic uncertainty reduces outbound tourism, it may boost domestic tourism due to the economic-stagnant effects. Utilizing the framework of the theory of reasoned action to analyze a global sample of 124 countries over the period 1996–2017, we find some initial evidence showing that an increase in economic uncertainty encourages domestic tourism while reducing outbound tourism in the global sample. Notably, while these effects are consistent in the upper-middle-income economies, an increase in uncertainty has a positive impact on both domestic and outbound tourism in lower-middle-income economies and a negative impact on both domestic and outbound tourism in higher-income economies. The key implementation of this study is that tourism development is not always associated with economic development and stability; sometimes it could be a signal of economic stagnancy and inactiveness.

Divisions: College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Economics, Finance & Entrepreneurship
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College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School
Additional Information: article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License ( which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (
Publication ISSN: 1354-8166
Last Modified: 29 Nov 2023 12:55
Date Deposited: 04 Jan 2021 10:47
Full Text Link: 10.1177/1354816620981519
Related URLs: http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
https://journal ... 354816620981519 (Publisher URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2020-12-24
Published Online Date: 2020-12-24
Accepted Date: 2020-11-23
Authors: Canh, Nguyen Phuc
Su, Dinh Thanh
Nguyen, Bach



Version: Published Version

License: Creative Commons Attribution

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Version: Accepted Version

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