An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high-income and middle-income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

Publication DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049
Divisions: College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Economics, Finance & Entrepreneurship
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. (2020), An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios. The World Economy. Accepted Author Manuscript, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049.  This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Brexit,EU,gravity model,trade policy,Accounting,Finance,Economics and Econometrics,Political Science and International Relations
Full Text Link:
Related URLs: https://onlinel ... 1111/twec.13049 (Publisher URL)
http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2021-01
Published Online Date: 2020-10-09
Accepted Date: 2020-10-01
Authors: Jackson, Karen
Shepotylo, Oleksandr (ORCID Profile 0000-0003-4990-6025)

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Version: Accepted Version

Access Restriction: Restricted to Repository staff only until 9 October 2022.


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