An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios


This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high-income and middle-income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

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Divisions: College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Economics, Finance & Entrepreneurship
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. (2020), An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios. The World Economy. Accepted Author Manuscript, which has been published in final form at  This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Brexit,EU,gravity model,trade policy,Accounting,Finance,Economics and Econometrics,Political Science and International Relations
Publication ISSN: 1467-9701
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2024 07:20
Date Deposited: 19 Oct 2020 09:01
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Related URLs: https://onlinel ... 1111/twec.13049 (Publisher URL)
http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2021-01
Published Online Date: 2020-10-09
Accepted Date: 2020-10-01
Authors: Jackson, Karen
Shepotylo, Oleksandr (ORCID Profile 0000-0003-4990-6025)



Version: Accepted Version

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