Stock price distributions and news:evidence from index options


We estimate the shape of the distribution of stock prices using data from options on the underlying asset, and test whether this distribution is distorted in a systematic manner each time a particular news event occurs. In particular we look at the response of the FTSE100 index to market wide announcements of key macroeconomic indicators and policy variables. We show that the whole distribution of stock prices can be distorted on an event day. The shift in distributional shape happens whether the event is characterized as an announcement occurrence or as a measured surprise. We find that larger surprises have proportionately greater impact, and that higher moments are more sensitive to events however characterised.

Publication DOI:
Divisions: College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Accounting
Additional Information: The original publication is available at
Uncontrolled Keywords: implied density functions,index options,macroeconomic news,Business, Management and Accounting(all),Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
Publication ISSN: 1573-7179
Last Modified: 02 Jan 2024 08:07
Date Deposited: 03 Nov 2009 10:24
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Related URLs: http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
http://www.spri ... 07576582564770/ (Publisher URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2004-11
Authors: Steeley, James M. (ORCID Profile 0000-0003-0345-5089)



Version: Accepted Version

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