Probabilistic adaptive model predictive power pinch analysis (PoPA) energy management approach to uncertainty


This paper proposes a probabilistic power pinch analysis (PoPA) approach based on Monte–Carlo simulation (MCS) for energy management of hybrid energy systems uncertainty. The systems power grand composite curve is formulated with the chance constraint method to consider load stochasticity. In a predictive control horizon, the power grand composite curve is shaped based on the pinch analysis approach. The robust energy management strategy effected in a control horizon is inferred from the likelihood of a bounded predicted power grand composite curve, violating the pinch. Furthermore, the response of the system using the energy management strategies (EMS) of the proposed method is evaluated against the day-ahead (DA) and adaptive power pinch strategy.

Publication DOI:
Divisions: College of Engineering & Physical Sciences > Power Electronics, Machines and Power System (PEMPS)
College of Engineering & Physical Sciences
Additional Information: This is an open access article published by the IET under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License (
Publication ISSN: 2051-3305
Last Modified: 27 Dec 2023 09:05
Date Deposited: 20 Jun 2019 13:01
Full Text Link:
Related URLs: https://digital ... 9/joe.2018.8154 (Publisher URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2019-06-17
Published Online Date: 2019-04-04
Accepted Date: 2018-07-31
Authors: Bassey Etim, Nyong-bassey
Giaouris, Damian
Patsios, Haris
Gadoue, Shady
Papadopoulos, Athanasios I.
Seferlis, Panos
Voutetakis, Spyros
Papadopoulou, Simira

Export / Share Citation


Additional statistics for this record