Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population

Abstract

This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is de- signed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, in a 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recov- ered and vaccinated agents. While many models assume a lifelong protection through vaccination, we focus on the impact of waning immunization due to conversion of vaccinated and recovered agents back to susceptible ones. Two asymptotic states exist, the \disease-free equilibrium" and the \endemic equi- librium" and we express the transitions between these states as function of the vaccination and conversion rates and using the basic reproduction number. We nd that the vaccination of newborns and adults have dierent consequences on controlling an epidemic. Also, a decaying disease protection within the re- covered sub-population is not sucient to trigger an epidemic on the linear level. We perform simulations for a parameter set modelling a disease with waning immunization like pertussis. For a diusively coupled population, a transition to the endemic state can proceed via the propagation of a traveling infection wave, described successfully within a Fisher-Kolmogorov framework.