Bayesian precalibration of a large stochastic microsimulation model


Calibration of stochastic traffic microsimulation models is a challenging task. This paper proposes a fast iterative probabilistic precalibration framework and demonstrates how it can be successfully applied to a real-world traffic simulation model of a section of the M40 motorway and its surrounding area in the U.K. The efficiency of the method stems from the use of emulators of the stochastic microsimulator, which provides fast surrogates of the traffic model. The use of emulators minimizes the number of microsimulator runs required, and the emulators' probabilistic construction allows for the consideration of the extra uncertainty introduced by the approximation. It is shown that automatic precalibration of this real-world microsimulator, using turn-count observational data, is possible, considering all parameters at once, and that this precalibrated microsimulator improves on the fit to observations compared with the traditional expertly tuned microsimulation.

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Divisions: College of Engineering & Physical Sciences > School of Informatics and Digital Engineering > Computer Science
College of Engineering & Physical Sciences > Systems analytics research institute (SARI)
Additional Information: © 2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. Funding: EPSRC - Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models Project under Grant D048893/1 and by the Aston Research Centre for Healthy Ageing.
Publication ISSN: 1558-0016
Full Text Link: http://ieeexplo ... rnumber=6755505
Related URLs: http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2014-06
Published Online Date: 2014-03-04
Authors: Boukouvalas, Alexis
Sykes, Pete
Cornford, Dan (ORCID Profile 0000-0001-8787-6758)
Maruri-Aguilar, Hugo



Version: Accepted Version

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