A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area


We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Publication DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500082133
Divisions: College of Business and Social Sciences > Aston Business School > Economics, Finance & Entrepreneurship
Additional Information: This is an electronic version of an article published in Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh and Mullineux, Andrew W. (2005) A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. Applied Economics, 37 (11). pp. 1257-1266. Applied Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133
Uncontrolled Keywords: Economics and Econometrics
Publication ISSN: 1466-4283
Last Modified: 08 Jul 2024 07:02
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2009 15:17
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Related URLs: http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
http://www.tand ... 036840500082133 (Publisher URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2005-06
Authors: Binner, Jane M.
Bissoondeeal, Rakesh (ORCID Profile 0000-0003-3950-0507)
Mullineux, Andrew W.



Version: Accepted Version

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