Prediction and Automatic Control with Special Reference to the Electricity Supply Industry

Abstract

The principal mathematical concepts and techniques of Automatic Control theory are briefly reviewed and those relating to probability concepts and prediction in particular, are discussed more fully. A detailed account is given of the two most significant prediction theories in the field viz. the Wiener theory and the exponentially weighted method. “The application of prediction theory generally to a complex industrial situation and especially to the Electricity Supply Industry is explored and an experimentally based investigation leading to a computer programme is described. A closed-loop feedback model incorporating prediction is proposed as a basis essential for any systematic study of the relation of prediction theory to the practical problem of automatic contol of an optimal or near optimal character in the Electricity Supply Industry. An appreciation is made of the general relevance of prediction theory as it now exists, to the theoretical problem of optimization and to the practical problem of effective automatic control in the electricity supply industry as understood from examination of recent Conference Reports.