Development of Two Forecasting Systems and the Design of Hard Copy Information Displays

Abstract

This thesis records work carried out under the auspices of the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees scheme at the University of Aston-in-Birmingham, at the company of fastener manufacturers Geo. Tucker Eyelet Co. Ltd. Two main projects at the company are reported. The first being the forecasting of raw material requirements. The need for more accurate forecasting is examined together with the existing materials control systems and the Materials Controller's responsibilities. The flow of information in and out of the materials control department was examined and as a by-product of this investigation a revised method of ordering was suggested and has since been adopted. The company had already established part of a computer system and the author was required to complete the forecasting module. Two computer "packages" were rejected as unsuitable for this application and a series of FORTRAN programs purpose-written. Only part of the system has been implemented - from which some stock reductions have resulted. The object of the second company project was to forecast monthly demand for a major group of products, with a 3-month horizon, to aid production control and short term planning. Historical computer records were used to test the suitability of various forecast methods, and a method combining historical and partially known forward orders was incorporated in a regular computer system. This system cannot now be useful until the company rectifies the decreasing accuracy of its Order Processing System, and interim aids are suggested. An investigation is also reported of the Hardcopy Display of Information, prompted by its effect on system effectiveness. End-uses of information are classified and a wide range of experimental evidence is brought together as a practical guide to display design.