An Analysis of Some Control Strategies for Environmental Lead

Abstract

This study is designed to examine the cost and effectiveness of controlling automotive lead emissions. Such emissions, accounting for 90% of all airborne lead, result from the combustion of gasoline containing lead-alkyl antiknock agents. These lead compounds are not naturally present in petroleum and so it would be possible to eliminate the major source of atmospheric lead pollution by discontinuing their use. Hence this policy study determines the cost-effective ranking of a number of suggested control strategies. This work complements the broad range of clinical and epidemiological studies carried out into the effects of environmental lead. The phenomenon of engine knock, and its prevention, is described to illustrate the role of lead in gasoline and the impact of its reduction or elimination. This is followed by a case study documenting the history of the elimination of lead from gasoline in the U.S.A., outlining the arguments for and against the control of lead emissions from automobiles. Having thus described the problem area, a number of control strategies for the U.K. are suggested and the concept of Cost-Effective Analysis as a means for their comparison introduced, along with the use of modelling to evaluate the strategies' effects. Existing models of human lead transport are reviewed and a model relating to a standard man developed. This standard man approach is used to calculate the effectiveness of the proposed strategies and their impacts on the Refinery-Engine System are assessed. Having calculated the costs of the various strategies, this information is combined with their effects to produce a cost-effective index. In conclusion, the concept of Cost-Effective Domination is introduced and employed to ascertain the dominant options, these results being presented as an input to the policy-maker.