An investigation of the emerging system of host government participation in the international oil industry with particular reference to Libyan participation arrangements

Abstract

This study has been conceived with the primary objective of identifying and evaluating the financial aspects of the transformation in country/company relations of the international oil industry from the traditional concessionary system to the system of governmental participation in the ownership and operation of oil concessions. The emphasis of the inquiry was placed on assembling a case study of the oil exploitation arrangements of Libya. Through a comprehensive review of the literature, the sociopolitical factors surrounding the international oil business were identified and examined in an attempt to see their influence on contractual arrangements and particularly to gauge the impact of any induced contractual changes on the revenue benefit accruing to the host country from its oil operations. Some comparative analyses were made in the study to examine the viability of the Libyan participation deals both as an investment proposal and as a system of conducting oil activities in the country. The analysis was carried out in the light of specific hypotheses to assess the relative impact of the participation scheme in comparison with the alternative concessionary model on the net revenue resulting to the government from oil operations and the relative effect on the level of research and development within the industry. A discounted cash flow analysis was conducted to measure inputs and outputs of the comparative models and judge their revenue benefits. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to detect any significant behavioural changes in the exploration and development effort associated with the different oil exploitation systems. Results of the investigation of revenues support the argument that the mere introduction of the participation system has not resulted in a significant revenue benefit to the host government. Though there has been a significant increase in government revenue, associated with the period following the emergence of the participation agreements, this increase was mainly due to socio-economic factors other than the participation scheme. At the same time the empirical results have shown an association of the participation scheme with a decline of the oil industry's research and development efforts.