Aspects of an interactive framework for technology assessment and development planning

Abstract

The formulation of a Development Planning framework, that accommodates Technology Assessment, is the objective of this thesis. The reduction to manageable dimensions of the task of optimising the solution of a complex system of international, national, regional and sectoral constraints in an evaluation -planning context, was seen as the key to this end. An important feature considered, was the system's capacity for absorbing new technologies and the social implications of prospective technological developments. In this thesis five inter-related models, a model for each of the listed functions,are proposed in the following logical progression. - representative long term planning policy and criteria formulation (Chapter3). - individual candidate development programme identification and definition in terms of capacity and timing (Chapter4). - optimisation of the breakdown of viable development programmes into projects defined in terms of location, capacity, production technology and manufacturing processes (Chapter 5). - optimisation of the selection of viable programmes under the timely constraints for the purpose of execution (Chapter 6). - handling private entrepreneurial proposals (Chapter7). Trials of the above models were carried out making use of previously published data relating to the Iranian Economy; the cement industry was taken as an example area for the purpose of evaluating technological developments. A standard linear programming package was used for trying three of the models, and two computer programmes were written, in FORTRAN 77, for trying the other two. The trials demonstrated that the proposed framework of the models was a feasible tool for optimising technological developments and/or evaluating various combinations of proposals. The level of refinement of the results depends on the costs the project management authority is willing to pay for the purpose of the evaluation.