Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

Barillec, Remi, Boukouvalas, Alexis and Cornford, Dan (2009). Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output. Technical Report. Aston University. (Unpublished)

Abstract

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Divisions: Engineering & Applied Sciences > Computer Science
Engineering & Applied Sciences > Systems analytics research institute (SARI)
Uncontrolled Keywords: emulation,computer model,dynamic model
Published Date: 2009-04
Authors: Barillec, Remi
Boukouvalas, Alexis
Cornford, Dan ( 0000-0001-8787-6758)

Download

Export / Share Citation


Statistics

Additional statistics for this record