Analyzing evacuation decisions using multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)


Emergency managers are faced with critical evacuation decisions. These decisions must balance conflicting objectives as well as high levels of uncertainty. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) provides a framework through which objective trade-offs can be analyzed to make optimal evacuation decisions. This paper is the result of data gathered during the European Commission Project, Evacuation Responsiveness by Government Organizations (ERGO) and outlines a preliminary decision model for the evacuation decision. The illustrative model identifies levels of risk at which point evacuation actions should be taken by emergency managers in a storm surge scenario with forecasts at 12 and 9 hour intervals. The results illustrate how differences in forecast precision affect the optimal evacuation decision. Additional uses for this decision model are also discussed along with improvements to the model through future ERGO data-gathering.

Publication DOI:
Divisions: Aston Business School > Operations & Information Management
Aston Business School
Additional Information: © 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license
Uncontrolled Keywords: emergency management,evacuation,multi-attribute utility theory,risk,Engineering(all)
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Related URLs: http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2010-12-30
Published Online Date: 2010-08-20
Authors: Kailiponi, Paul

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