Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery


This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

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Divisions: Aston Business School > Aston India Foundation for Applied Research
Aston Business School
Aston Business School > Operations & Information Management
Additional Information: This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Dey, P. K. (2012). Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery. Production planning and control, 23(12), 903-921. Production planning and control 2012 © Taylor & Francis, available online at:
Uncontrolled Keywords: risk management,cause and effect diagram,analytic hierarchy process,decision tree,oil refinery construction project,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering,Computer Science Applications,Strategy and Management,Management Science and Operations Research
Full Text Link: http://www.tand ... 287.2011.586379
Related URLs: http://www.scop ... tnerID=8YFLogxK (Scopus URL)
PURE Output Type: Article
Published Date: 2012-12-01
Published Online Date: 2011-07-06
Authors: Dey, Prasanta K. ( 0000-0002-9984-5374)



Version: Accepted Version

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