Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

Berny, Jan (1988). Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control. PHD thesis, Aston University.

Abstract

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Divisions: Aston Business School
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Institution: Aston University
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecasting,risk analysis,management planning and control,deterministic growth (S) curve,project management,management software systems
Completed Date: 1988
Authors: Berny, Jan

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