Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

Binner, Jane M.; Gazely, Alicia M. and Kendall, G. (2007). Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques. Working Paper. Aston University, Birmingham (UK).

Abstract

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Divisions: Aston Business School > Economics finance & entrepreneurship
Uncontrolled Keywords: EuroDivisia,Divisia money,inflation,evolutionary strategies,neural networks
Published Date: 2007-11

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