A Systems Approach to Caribbean Transport Planning

Abstract

This study shows how a system's approach was used to produce a methodology which could be used to derive a time-phased transport investment programme for the countries within the Caribbean Free Trade Association (CARIFTA). These comprise ten islands and mainland Guyana which are largely served by a few ships under a Regional Shipping Council. To enable port and shipping improvements to be designed by the Council in collaboration with the port authorities, this methodology combines a linear programming transport model with a demand model (which is assumed to be used by the island's economic planners). A transport model was developed to minimise the cost of inter-island transport operation by selecting a pattern of regional shipping routes to permit the movement of intraregional trade. The transport model only uses existing categories of data provided by the demand model and the port and shipping authorities to select : the shipping routes to be followed - the allocation of commodity flows to each selected route - the number of ship-journeys required over each route. The model also identifies the effect on the cost of transport operation resulting from a change in shipping or port facilities. In this methodology, this information is fed back to both port and shipping authorities. Trial runs with the model showed that while a direct annual cost saving of only 5% could be achieved with current levels of trade, it does show how the pattern of shipping routes can be improved to avoid the need to invest in additional ships and port facilities. Thus, a considerable longer term saving could result by using it as an investment planning model where time-phased transport investment plans would be derived over a number of time periods in conjunction with the economic plamers in the region.